José Mourinho enjoyed his first win with Tottenham today. Our model suggests he will have less impact than you might think
that clubs which endure such rough patches tend to come through them, regardless of whether they change their coach. Mr Mourinho may receive plenty of credit just for getting Spurs to return to their usually dominant selves, when Mr Pochettino might also have overseen such a turnaround.
We wanted to produce a similar study to Mr Szymanski’s, updated for more recent seasons—but could not, because today’s elite managers often switch between countries, and few clubs are as forthcoming with their accounts as those in England are. So, rather than using financial resources as a benchmark, we looked for a widely available measure of players’ ability.
We then plugged these line-ups into the 38 games a year that clubs play in their domestic leagues. When we simulated entire seasons, we found that our predictions were nearly as good as those made by betting markets. The wisdom of the gambling crowds is the gold standard of forecasting in sports, since punters can price in factors that statisticians overlook.
Not quite. We did find a link between overperformance in the past and the future, but it was very weak. Because managers regress so quickly to the mean, our best predictions came from blending their actual results with 11 seasons’ worth of average ones . In his 13 years of management in the “big five” leagues, Mr Mourinho’s teams have overachieved by 2.1 points per season, relative to what an average manager would get. Our best guess of his future contribution is therefore roughly 1.1 points.
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