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A data scientist who correctly predicted a series of recent elections is back to throw his analytical hat in the ring — and he's betting that Kamala Harris is going to win big in November., Northwestern University's Thomas Miller startled pundits and pollsters when he called not only the presidential race for Joe Biden, but also. When doing so, he not only got the winners right, but also the amount they'd win by, and in all three contests came within 10 points of the final tally.
The Northwestern data scientist's approach relies not on canvassing likely voters, as traditional pollsters do, but on election betting markets. To Miller's mind, polls are a "snapshot of the recent past" and use sample sizes too small — generally between 500 and 1500 people — to accurately reflect the electorate.
As Miller explains on The Virtual Tout, the bespoke model that correctly forecasted the 2020 presidential race has suggested since September 10 — the day of the Harris-Trump debate — that the vice president would usher in a "Democratic landslide" in November.
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