Shortly after the inauguration of William Lai, China issued some strong rhetoric and authorized joint air and sea drills around Taiwan.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, third from right, listens to a briefing on multiple Stinger missile launchers during his visit to inspect Taiwanese military in Taoyuan in northern Taiwan on May 23, 2024.
In China’s view, Taiwan is a renegade province, not a sovereign state with territorial integrity. According to China’s Taiwan affairs office, Laiof seeking ‘independence’ and undermined the stability of the Taiwan Strait” in the process. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was more blunt and undiplomatic, The strong rhetoric was only the half of it. Shortly after the inauguration, China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, authorized joint air and sea drills around Taiwan.
None of this bodes well for Lai’s agenda over the next four years. Domestically, Taiwan is feeling the pinch of a rising cost of living, high housing prices and near-stagnant wages for younger workers. While Lai may have extended his party’s stay in the presidential office for a third consecutive term, he lost the majority in the legislature to the opposition Kuomintang. Lai won only 40% of the popular vote, which isn’t exactly a mandate.
What’s depressing, at least from Lai’s perspective, is that the chances for diplomacy with China today are close to nonexistent. Tsai, Lai’s predecessor, was also interested in establishing durable communications with Beijing during her eight years in office, but Xi ignored her government’s entreaties. It’s difficult to envision Xi being any more sympathetic to someone like Lai, who is commonly seen as more of a hard-liner on the issue of Taiwanese independence than Tsai was.
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