Daily on Energy ⚡ — The economic case for lowering the oil price cap to $45
THE CASE FOR A LOWER PRICE CAP ON RUSSIAN OIL: A leading group of economists is proposing the Russian oil price cap be reduced to $45 per barrel, outlining the theory and evidence that the cap is crimping Vladimir Putin’s war funding while also keeping supply flowing to the global market.
A key insight from the paper – Russia’s supply curve may be downward sloping: If anything, Russia’s oil production has increased since the cap took force, and has not shocked markets or caused the price pain that many leaders had feared. That’s because, outside of oil, Russia has few, if any, alternatives to prop up its economy.
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"I hope that at least this autumn, we can take a stand on a decision on the so-called indictment issue,” he added. “The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,” IEA director Fatih Birol said in a statement. “Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition.”
Still, the move represents a further turn by the industry toward further investment in fossil fuels as energy security and price considerations have become more politically salient over the past 18 months.
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