MLB home run prop bets for Thursday, June 13th, including Paul Goldschmidt, Ketel Marte and Teoscar Hernandez.
In today's home run column, I'm focusing on a trio of righty sluggers in advantageous matchups with the potential to crack one over the fence. Paul Goldschmidt's numbers are down, but I can't look past his underlying metrics that show he may be primed for a big summer.Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today, June 13thGoldschmidt only has seven homers this season with .225/.300/.344 splits, but he is still crushing the ball.
Enter Mitch Keller, who has been allowing hard contact on 41% of balls in play, per MLBStat cast, and owed a ton of regression after posting a 4.15 xERA, far worse than his 3.16 ERA.Marte has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. He has crushed 14 home runs with an xBA of .299, 95th percentile, and an xSLG of .521, 93rd percentile.In June, he is hitting .389 with a slugging percentage of .750 and four home runs.
Canning is in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity, regularly allowing hard contact, which sets up nicely for a guy who has the profile of Marte.Hernandez has been as big of a benefactor as anyone to joining the vaunted Dodgers lineup. Hitting behind Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani, among other stars, Hernandez has crushed 17 home runs as he faces more hittable pitches.
He ranks 96th in barrel percentage and ranks in the 93rd percentile in xSLG. The Rangers shaky pitching staff, bottom half of the league in total ERA, makes me bullish we can see fireworks at Dodger Stadium, prime for Hernandez to cash in.If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
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