The District had anticipated long-term enrollment growth, justifying the opening of new schools based on this increase in students.
The current enrollment stagnation and anticipated decrease in the coming years — according to a study released Wednesday by the local research group D.C. Policy Center — was propelled by declining birthrates and adults leaving the city or pulling their children out of public schools during the pandemic.
Between the academic years 2007-2008 and 2019-2020, D.C.’s public schools increased by an average of 1,598 students per year. The growth stalled during the pandemic and, if trends continue exactly as they are, enrollment could tumble to as low as 81,000 students by 2026, the study predicted. The D.C. Policy Center’s study relied on government data. D.C. officials did not dispute the findings, though they said they were not ready to make long-term projections.examining the city’s birthrate, which showed that after years of growth, the rate began to decline in 2016. That year the city reached 9,854 births; the figure dropped to 8,869 births in 2020. Nationally, birthrates had been dropping since 2008, according to the report.
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