Cyclone Idai hit poor countries the hardest and shows why disaster resilience is a necessity.
struck Beira, the fourth largest city in Mozambique, in mid-March with torrential rains and winds of more than 190 km per hour. It took days for the sheer size of the resulting disaster to be understood.
Will it rain more or less? Will the timing of rainfall change? Will rainfall come in short bursts with long dry periods in between? Will the frequency and intensity of cyclone events increase? We don’t know the answer to these questions with certainty. To arrive at these conclusions, the study linked together a series of models that converted future weather patterns, mainly temperature and precipitation, into river flow, hydropower output, irrigation potential, flood events, crop growth and finally into economic outcomes. This was done for more than 400 future climates that were selected to reflect the best estimate of the distribution of future climates.
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