For Florida, just a handful of miles may make a huge difference in Hurricane Dorian's slow dance with the coast
1 / 5Tropical WeatherThis GOES-16 satellite image taken Sunday, Sept. 1, 2019, at 17:00 UTC and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , shows Hurricane Dorian, right, churning over the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Dorian struck the northern Bahamas on Sunday as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, its 185 mph winds ripping off roofs and tearing down power lines as hundreds hunkered in schools, churches and other shelters.
Center Director Ken Graham is telling residents don't bet on safety just because his office specific forecast track has the storm just a bit offshore.And making matters more touch-and-go is that with every new forecast,"we keep nudging a little bit to the left," which is closer to the Florida coast, he said.
With a big, sloppy hurricane — say 50% larger in size — all of Florida would be under a serious threat, but that's not the case, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy.It's a combination of the small size, close-in track, like Matthew in 2016, and weak steering currents. That means just a smidge of a movement days ahead of time, while Dorian is in the Bahamas, can reverberate and mean a direct hit or not, said private meteorologist Ryan Maue.
"People are getting impatient with this," McNoldy said. Because the threat seems to keep sticking around, it could be a problem getting the right message across, he said.
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