Investors are clearly spooked about the impending Fed rate hike. Open interest is down as is the annual premium on Bitcoin futures. It isn’t all gloomy, however, as exchange outflows are still near record highs.
) right now is the flat futures term structure through March. This is strongly attributed to “investor uncertainty regarding the wider economic impact of a tighter US dollar.”to spot markets, according to Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, but the longer term effect it will have is still unclear. As a result, Glassnode observed that investors are taking steps to protect themselves from the potentially low downside risk.
While the data clearly shows an objective flat area on the futures term structure curve, it suggests somewhat more subtly that investors are not expecting a significant bullish breakout through the end of 2022. The annualized premium on futures is only at 6% right now. On-chain data analysis from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin investors are hedging out risks in order to stay protected against Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in March.
Fundstrat managing partner Tom Lee agrees that there are hard times ahead for traditional investments like bonds. He toldon Feb. 14 that due to an interest rate reversal, “for the next 10 years, you’re guaranteed to lose money owning bonds… that’s almost $60 trillion of the $142 trillion.”
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