Mamdani and his allies are working hard to sell the idea that New York City is safer than ever. But the stats tell a different story.
Zohran Mamdani has a slew of political assets, including a winning smile, a slick way with social media and a positive approval rating. His campaign-trail disavowal of his past anti-cop agitation and his decision to retain NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch are obvious examples of this reality.
Last week, Mamdani pushed back hard against PIX 11 News reporter Dan Mannarino’s question regarding city crime statistics. City Council Speaker Julie Menin, Mannarino pointed out, “said that rape and felony assaults are concerning to her . . . the NYPD is touting low numbers, but she’s looking at different numbers.
Somewhere in there is the truth. ”“Well, I believe the NYPD,” he said.
“What we’re seeing are some of the lowest numbers that New York City has seen in recorded history, especially when it comes to murders and shootings. ”onlyIt was a slick answer, but deliberately misleading. — an incredible feat, considering the multi-year spike in both measures through 2021. Thanks no doubt to the NYPD’s hard work, the most socially costly components of the city’s public safety challenges are under control.
Through July 12, the city has reported just a hair under 59,000 “major crimes” — including murder, rape, robbery, burglary, felony assault, grand larceny and auto theft. That number is 24% higher than the 47,438 major crimes reported through the same date in 2019 — a year in which New Yorkers were spendingThe difference in the was even greater, at 46.5% .
Worse, though, was his response to Menin’s distress about a recent rise in reported rapes. No worries,: “What I think is important to know is a lot of the increase in rape also comes from an expanded definition of what counts as rape.
” He was referring to a January 2024 state law that expanded the legal definition of rape to include multiple kinds of non-consensual sexual misconduct — but that 2024 change doesHis tone-deaf response drew criticism from across the political spectrum: City Council Democrat Susan Zhuang condemned it as a “deflection,” while Republican Bruce Blakeman said Mamdani “owes rape victims an apology, not an excuse. ” The mayor’s efforts to paint a rosier picture than the crime numbers justify suggests he knows full well that his public-safety narrative is crucial for his political health.
That’s why they’re working hard to play up the crime declines.
“Since electing a socialist … NYC crime rate is down,” socialist state Sen. Jabari Brisport gloated on X. “Conservatives . . . get wrecked.
” Socialist News Media boasted, “Under a Socialist mayor, New York City has reported its fewest shootings and murders in its recorded history. ”to the force last year, and has recently drawn the ire of both the NYCLU and the Legal Aid Society for doingIt’s no coincidence that major crime is trending downward while the mayor has avoided taking action on his police-related campaign promises.
The NYPD is still fielding mental-health calls, the Strategic Response Group is still intact, the city is still housing more thanNevertheless, the mayor did just give in to his far-left base’s demands andMamdani’s critics are right to object to that decision — and they’re right to keep making noise when the mayor’s happy talk is at odds with reality. Because the second New Yorkers buy the idea that public safety is no longer a problem is exactly when you can expect the Mamdani of 2020 to reemerge.
Rafael A. Mangual is the Nick Ohnell fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research and the author of “Criminal Justice
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