CNBC's Jim Cramer outlines four key macroeconomic questions that will likely shape the market in 2025, including the trajectory of the 10-Year Treasury yield, the strength of the labor market, Wall Street trends, and corporate earnings growth.
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday commented on the uncertainty surrounding 2025, outlining four key macroeconomic questions that are preoccupying his mind. He pointed to unknowns regarding the 10-Year Treasury, the labor market , Wall Street trends, and overall corporate earnings growth.
'At the beginning of each new year, I always try to determine which stocks will perform best over the next twelve months, but this year is different, primarily because there is so much we don't know about what lies ahead,' he stated. While this uncertainty is always present to some degree, this year's stakes feel higher given that the S&P 500 achieved two consecutive years of 20% plus gains for the first time since the late nineties. Cramer identified four major questions likely to shape the market throughout the year: 1) The trajectory of the 10-Year Treasury yield, 2) The strength and resilience of the labor market, 3) The direction of Wall Street, and 4) The outlook for corporate earnings growth. He specifically focused on the 10-Year Treasury yield, which surged by more than 2 basis points to 4.6% on Friday, questioning whether it will fall to 4%, rise to 5%, or remain in the middle ground. He noted that since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, long rates have skyrocketed. Traditionally, bonds and stocks move in opposite directions, so Cramer suggested that stocks should perform well if the 10-year yield decreases and remain stable even if it hovers between 4.5% and 4.6%. However, he cautioned that if long rates continue to climb and the 10-year reaches 5%, things could take a negative turn. Despite the economy showing signs of cooling in recent months, Cramer asserted that it remains strong, with low unemployment. He expressed confidence that the labor market can withstand the current pressures
ECONOMY MARKET CRAMER TREASURY YIELD LABOR MARKET
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