Market Overview Analysis by Michael Ashton covering: . Read Michael Ashton's latest article on Investing.com
Let me start with the punch line, which I think will not be a very common take: this report does not stop the Fed from easing 50bps next week, and honestly doesn’t really even hurt the chances very much.
That looks a little quirky, especially following the recent dip. And it looks suspiciously like a one-month-lagged chart of the m/m changes in Primary rents, which dipped a few months ago before paying it back last month. Again, this doesn’t look like something that screams deflation, but the far right tails are all moving left. There’s still a cluster around 4-5%, which shouldn’t be surprising since Median CPI is at about 4.2%. Do also notice that there aren’t a lot of categories showing: a mode around 4-5%, but tails to the downside. In inflationary periods, the tails stretch to the upside, and we had that for a while; but the signature of the overall distribution is encouraging.
The y/y figures for headline CPI are going to keep dropping for a few months here, partly on base effects and partly because energy prices are very weak. A perfectly reasonable trajectory for monetary policy would be 25bps next week, and then larger cuts in a few months when the headline inflation number is lower and the unemployment rate is higher.
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