If large-scale shutdown policies — like ordering people to stay home and closing schools — were not implemented after the Covid-19 pandemic reached the US, the nation would have roughly 60 million more coronavirus infections, a new modeling study suggests
The study, published Monday in the scientific journal Nature, involved a modeling technique typically used for estimating economic growth to measure the effect of shutdown policies across six countries: China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States.
How to reduce risk of Covid-19 during summer activities 03:09Read MoreThe study period ended on April 6, but keeping shutdown orders in place after that time has likely led to even more coronavirus infections being avoided -- even though maintaining such measures has been difficult, the study's lead author, Solomon Hsiang, a professor and director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, said in a press release on Monday.
US coronavirus death toll surpasses 100,000 03:25The researchers did not estimate how many deaths might have been prevented."Our analysis focuses on confirmed infections, but other outcomes, such as hospitalizations or deaths, are also of policy interest. Future work on these outcomes may require additional modeling approaches because they are relatively more context- and state-dependent," the researchers wrote in the study.
"Using a model based on data from the number of deaths in 11 European countries, it is clear to us that non-pharmaceutical interventions -- such as lockdown and school closures -- have saved about 3.1 million lives in these countries," Seth Flaxman, a senior lecturer in the Department of Mathematics at Imperial College London who worked on the study, said in a press release on Monday.
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