The course of an epidemic is shaped by a variable called the reproductive rate. We explain how it spreads
, had been detected around Codogno, a small town in Lombardy 60km south-east of Milan. By the next day the number was up to 60, and five elderly people had died. On the 23rd“red zones” were set up around the infected areas . Inside the zones there is a strict lockdown; outside 500 police officers and soldiers stop people from leaving.
Iran, where the first covid-19 cases were reported two days before Italy’s, has also closed schools and cancelled football games. There too, though, worship continues, with what appear to have been dire consequences. The ceaseless flow of pilgrims to the mosques and shrines of Qom has continued despite the city being the site of the first cases.Ahmad Amirabadi Farahani, anfrom the city, said on February 24th that the death toll there had reached 50, though other officials deny this.
The outbreaks in Italy and Iran, along with a large one in South Korea, have convinced many epidemiologists that attempts to keep the virus contained within China have run their course; it will now spread from second countries to third countries and on around the world. As of February 27th, cases had been reported in 50 countries .
That is the message the world’s financial markets have taken; the Borsa Italiana in Milan was far from alone in its miseries. Investors had previously acted as though the economic impacts of covid-19 would be limited to China and those whose supply chains wind through it. The spread of the disease to South Korea, Iran and Italy caused a massive sell-off on February 24th.
As of the morning of February 27th, stock markets had fallen by 8% in America, 7.4% in Europe and 6.2% in Asia over the past seven days. The industries, commodities and securities that are most sensitive to global growth, cross-border commerce and densely packed public spaces got whacked particularly hard, with the prices of oil and shares in airlines, cruise-ship owners, casinos and hotel companies all tumbling.
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