The latest report from the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium shows that the numbers of actual infections and detected cases in a fourth wave “may be comparable” to earlier waves.
The latest report from the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium shows that the numbers of actual infections and detected cases “may be comparable”.A Covid-19 4th wave is likely to be less severe, say modellers, but hospitals could still be overwhelmed.The ratio of hospital admissions and deaths to infections and cases in SA's predicted Covid-19 fourth wave is “expected to be substantially lower than in previous waves”.
according to the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium which released their latest report with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases on Wednesday. The consortium’s scenarios were based on two variables - people’s behaviour in response to the risk of resurgence and the appearance of a hypothetical new variant that evades immunity.
If increases in socialising occur in January, as opposed to November, “later and smaller waves are expected, as a larger proportion of the population will be vaccinated”.