By calling an election Rishi Sunak has opened the door to Number 10
hold a general election on July 4th. Announcing the news in Downing Street on May 22nd, his expression plaintive and his jacket soaked with rain, Rishi Sunak had the air of a man who knew what the result would be.
The Labour Party now has an average poll lead of 23 percentage points, a deficit that no governing party has successfully overcome in an election campaign. The central scenario of, which draws from polls and the results in individual constituencies in elections dating back to 1959, is that Labour will win 381 seats to the Tories’ 192 , a thumping majority of 112s. The model gives less than a 1% chance that the Conservatives would win a majority of seats if an election were held tomorrow.
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