Governments should be thinking about pandemic mitigation, says researcher. FMTNews Coronavirus
February 26, 2020 10:46 PMPARIS: Global screening efforts to prevent the rapid spread of coronavirus are likely to fail, according to new research warning that even best-case screenings of air travellers will miss more than half of infected people.
Researchers in the United States and Britain in a study published in the journal eLife used computer models to predict the impact of screening, based on the latest data of how the coronavirus behaves and how long it takes for patients to show symptoms. The WHO says that the typical incubation period — that is the time between a patient contracting the virus and symptoms showing — is around 10-14 days.
Gostic and the team found that the final category was completely undetectable by traditional screening methods, and travellers in the third category could only be caught if they were willing to self report.Even assuming a best-case scenario where only one in 20 passengers were “subclinical” — that is, infected but not showing symptoms — the models predicted that 53% of cases would be missed.
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