A coronavirus model that has been cited by the White House is looking to incorporate data on whether Americans wear masks, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington
The change would be one of many in recent weeks for the institute's model, which has been criticized before for its assumptions and performance.As states have begun reopening, IHME has upped its forecast for the number of coronavirus deaths in the US, based in part on cell phone mobility data that showed people moving around more. But the institute revised its projections down slightly this week, saying an expected increase in infections has not yet occurred.
But epidemiologists at the time were skeptical and said that assumption was unrealistic. IHME now predicts tens of thousands of deaths after June 1. The model also assumed that deaths in states would rise and fall at about the same rate -- essentially fitting a curve -- but that didn't happened. IHME has since revised its methodology to forecast a longer, more drawn-out epidemic in the US.
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