Core Inflation Creeps Higher Ex-Shelter: Tariff Risks Not Gone Yet

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Core Inflation Creeps Higher Ex-Shelter: Tariff Risks Not Gone Yet
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Japan GDP grows far below expectations in Q4 amid weak capex, exportsPerhaps the single most important macro phenomenon of the past several decades is the precipitous decline in the labor share of income.

As David Hay writes, “The Roots of Populism in the U.S. can be seen in the flip side of the long ascension by Corporate America’s profit margins: the long bear market in labor’s share of income.” Supportive demographics trends and increasing globalization explain much of this dynamic. However, both are now in the process of shifting back in the other direction. As to the former, Axios reports, “Forget K-shaped, try gray-shaped: Older Americans are powering the economy.” As to the latter, the cost of deglobalizing the economy may be only starting to materialize. According to Brean, “Core CPI excluding used vehicles and shelter has edged up. The three-month inflation rate in this category has risen to 2.9% from 1.1% in December. I do not think the data suggest that we are clear of the tariff problem and back on a disinflationary path to 2%.” Markets are already sending a fairly clear message in regard to these shifting macro dynamics. As Callum Thomas writes, “Gold is the best performing asset during the 2020’s so far… . How will the rest of the decade go?” The relative performance of major segments within the broad stock market are beginning to do so, as well. “The Mag Seven topped out vs the energy sector in December of 2025, at the same level it did back in October of 2020, when XLE bottomed and ran 250% over the next two years,” reports Daily Chartbook. So far this year, energy is far and away the best-performing sector in the stock market. “Overall, the energy sector is offering what investors seek the most: high free-cash-flow generation, strong and growing dividends, meaningful share buybacks, inflation protection and real-asset exposure,” explains Rob Thummel. “In the words of a client who has been-there-and-done-that, we’re moving into the ‘revenge of the dinosaurs’ phase of the game now,” reports Goldman Sachs.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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