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China’s copper smelters are at a critical juncture after fees for processing imported ore collapsed to single figures, raising focus on whether they will keep resisting pressure for production cuts.
Fees last dropped to single digits in 2010, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, according to researcher Wood Mackenzie. Next week, executives from at least 15 Chinese smelters“The current spot fees have been significantly lower than the smelter’s break-even point and we expect larger production cuts or lower operating rates of Chinese smelters in the next few months,” said Brian Peng, a Beijing-based senior analyst with researcher CRU.
Global copper demand has taken a hit as industry reels from high energy costs and slow consumer spending. The economic outlook for China — responsible for more than half the market’s copper consumption — remains gloomy, and latest figures from Germany showed a severe slump in January manufacturing orders.And there are reasons why the unusually low smelter fees might not yet mean swingeing output cuts.
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