The U.S. aren't favorites at the Copa América like Argentina are -- but what would it really take for the USMNT to reach Argentina's level?
Ryan O'Hanlon is a staff writer for ESPN.com. He's also the author of"Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game's Analytics Revolution."will reach the tournament final on July 14 in Miami Gardens, Florida with the chance to lift another trophy. Argentina, after all, are the defending Copa América champs and the defending World Cup champs. Before the tournament kicked off, the betting markets gave them a greater than 50% chance of reaching the final.
By design, Elo is a conservative, slow-moving rating system that accounts for a long history of matches. Another way to look at the difference between the two sides would be to try to measure the pure talent produced by both countries. These talent shifts can be sudden, in both directions -- a player ages out of his prime, a prospect develops into a star, a star makes a one-time switch to represent a different country -- and most rating systems won't account for those changes right away.
Funnily enough, Dybala hasn't played a minute in World Cup qualifying and didn't make the Copa América roster, while Martinez still hasn't become a consistent starter for Argentina. But since we're trying to account for the overall talent of a country, we'll still slot both of them in as stars. That makes six stars for Argentina.started 31 games for Manchester City in the Premier League this season.
There's one problem: development of the highest-end talent doesn't always follow such a linear pattern, and we can't be confident that's how the USMNT's future will play out. It seems unlikely the USMNT can engineer superstar production without totally revamping this country's sports culture and centering it on soccer. There's a reason why the best teams tend to be the same teams. Every country goes through cycles, but the history of international soccer is basically the history of Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, France and England -- the two richest countries in South America and the five richest countries currently recognized by UEFA.
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