Occam’s razor holds that the simplest explanation is closest to the truth. But the real world is quite complex
If you’ve ever hung around scientists, you’ve most likely at some point heard one of them say “the best explanation is the simplest one.” But is it? From the behavior of ants to the occurrence of tornadoes, the natural world is often quite complex. Why should we assume the simplest explanation is closest to the truth?.” And it bears a family relationship to the “principle of least astonishment,” which holds that if an explanation is too surprising, it’s probably not right.
Newton was one of the greatest scientists of all time, but if we stop to think about it, this claim is a peculiar one. Who is to say what “pleases nature”? And doesn’t this guidance assume we know what we are in fact trying to figure out? Physics is filled with explanations that are surprising, unexpected and hard to get your head around. Newton explained light as being made of particles, whereas other scientists of his era explained it as a wave. Quantum mechanics, however, tells us that light is, in some respects, both a wave and a particle. Newton’s account was simpler, but modern physics tells us that the more complex model is closer to the truth.
And then there’s the vexing question of how we define simplicity. Consider the ongoing debate over the origin of the COVID pandemic. On the side of the lab-leak theory—that the SARS-CoV-2 virus escaped from a facility rather than being transmitted from wild animals to humans—some. One could argue the reverse: given that most past pandemics had a zoonotic origin, the simpler explanation is that this pandemic did, too.
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