Market Overview Analysis by James Picerno covering: . Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com
What a long, strange trip it’s been for some analysts since the summer of recession forecasts turned into yesterday’s robust 2.8% rise in, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP. Personal consumption expenditures increased 3.7% in Q3, a robust pickup from Q2’s 2.8%.
Monitoring a broad set of economic and financial indicators, by contrast, filters out a lot of noise and maximizes signal. There’s always uncertainty, no matter how you slice and dice the data. But the temptation to cherry-pick one or two indicators to inform your economic outlook is the macro equivalent of a rookie mistake.
Fortunately, there’s a better way. Consider, for instance, the combination of nowcasts that have repeatedly been featured on CapitalSpectator.com in the months leading up to yesterday’s Q3 GDP report. These updates, drawn from a variety of sources, have consistently pointed to low recession risk – theIf you think you’ve seen this movie before in previous quarters, you’re right.
Recession risk remains low, I reported in the Oct. 26 issue of The US Business Cycle Risk Report. The key indicator that informed this view: an estimated 10% probability that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent, based on the Composite Recession Probability Index , which aggregates a variety of business-cycle data sets.
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