COVID-19 has hampered North Korea’s defence industry but it is unlikely its position on denuclearisation will change, says RSIS’ Liang Tuang Nah.
SINGAPORE: The current COVID-19 pandemic could indirectly apply the brakes on North Korea’s belligerent behaviour.
With no vaccine in sight, the North must rely on preventative measures like quarantining suspected cases, lockdowns of specific areas, applying social distancing regulations in workplaces and suspending mass gatherings to moderate the crisis.COVID-19 has also hampered North Korea’s defence industry, which is already suffering from limitations imposed by comprehensive UN sanctions introduced in 2016.
In February 2020, the KPA conducted a live fire demonstration that involved bombarding an undefended islet. This was followed by a series of short-range missile and rocket launches in March and April. While being cautious of Washington might be a factor, less capable missiles also have lower personnel requirements, making them a better choice in these contagious times.Could this outbreak, with its significant negative economic impact and fatality rate, lead to enduring changes in North Korea’s strategic deterrence and nuclear weapons policy? Looking to the past under the rule of the previous North Korean leader Kim Jong Il might provide hopeful clues.
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