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China’s primary aluminum smelters are producing record amounts of metal and the domestic market surplus is spilling out of the country in the form of semi-manufactured products.
With no means of negotiating a multilateral remedy, countries are increasingly turning to unilateral tariffs to protect themselves from the renewed Chinese flood.China’s production of primary aluminum hit a fresh monthly peak of 3.690 million metric tons in July, according to the International Aluminium Institute.
Semi-manufactured product exports fell 14.9% last year but rebounded by a similar margin to almost 3.0 million tons in the first half of 2024, according to LSEG trade data.China monthly product exports and year-on-year changeThe US has led the push-back against Chinese exports of both aluminum and steel in recent years.
In April it asked the Office of the US Trade Representative to consider tripling duties to 25% on both Chinese steel and aluminum products, using Section 301 powers designed to protect the country from “unfair” trade practices. Both countries have been accused of acting as transshipment corridors for Chinese aluminum surplus in the form of remelted product.Mexico was due to lift duties by a similar amount but changed its mind in May. The government argued it would have placed too high a burden on the country’s aluminum consumers.
India’s trade ministry has just recommended imposing an anti-dumping duty on aluminum foil imported from China after surging shipments from the neighbouring country captured nearly a third of India’s market share despite ample local production capacity.
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