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alumina and aluminum contracts. The latter is up by 3.5% since the start of January, while the price of alumina has risen by 15.3%.Chinese alumina prices have been volatile in 2024, jumping in January due to concern about bauxite supplies from Guinea and again in May after Rio Tinto declared force majeure on third-party deliveries from its alumina refineries in Queensland due to restricted gas supplies.
The ShFE contract, newly launched last year, has been particularly frenetic, rising above the 4,000-yuan mark in May and currently trading below the spot physical market at 3,800.Environmental inspections caused multiple domestic bauxite mines to suspend operations early in the year, which in turn has constrained alumina production growth.
Chinese alumina producers increased exports to Russia from just 1,750 tons in 2021 to 1.12 million tons last year. Exports so far this year have surged another 46% to 610,000 tons. Analysts at Macquarie expect alumina prices to peak in the third quarter of the year as the market shifts back to supply surplus, although the bank expects only a marginal 220,000-ton surplus over 2024 as a whole.
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