Bill Connelly breaks down the Big 12 (for now) battle of unbeatens and some interesting SEC matchups, including Georgia's biggest challenge yet.
Barryn Sorrell is part of a Texas defense that has allowed opponents just a 5.6% success rate on third-down rushing attempts. It's one of college football's mile markers. If Oklahoma and Texas are playing, it must be early October, conference play must be fully underway and it must be time to start getting serious.
Texas neither blitzes nor gets to the quarterback with frequency. The Horns are 57th in pressure rate and 51st in sacks per dropback. But they're 22nd insack rate and can render the Sooners one-dimensional with phenomenal run defense. The Horns are second in rushing success rate allowed, and opponents have converted just 5.6% of their third-down rush attempts. That's not only No. 1 in the country -- no one else is below 20%! They've been a third-down brick wall.
The Aggies proceeded to lose nine of their next 13 games. They went 5-7 in 2022. After looking like he had solved Saban, Fisher was keeping his job only because of a ludicrous buyout. He had to bring in Bobby Petrino to try to get the offense back on track. If those issues continue, here's where they could become costly. Kentucky, Saturday's opponent, is easily the best and most explosive team the Dawgs have faced, and Georgia is one slip-up away from making the final SEC East race interesting.Granted, Georgia is at its"65-7 in the national championship game" best when it feels disrespected, and Smart probably enjoys that doubt levels are rising. It will surprise no one if or when the Angry Dawgs make an appearance.
The Maryland defense has shined, too, albeit against a set of offenses that rank 86th or worse in offensive SP+. Like Ohio State, the Terps are pretty bend-don't-break, especially up front. And if neither team is creating chunk plays and easy scores, this game will come down to who operates better in the red zone. That might not be Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been dreadful this season, ranking 96th in red zone touchdown rate on offense and 85th on defense .
SP+ projection: Mizzou by 1.2. Over the past three weeks, Mizzou has overachieved projections by 7.1 points per game; over the past two, LSU has underachieved by 5.9. Short-term trends point toward the home team, and SP+ says this is a tossup. I liked this one more when Mizzou was getting 6.5, but there's still value here.SP+ projection: 51.3 points. Only three of these teams' combined nine games have topped 54 points.
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