There's still a ton we -- and SP+ -- don't know this season. But after two weeks and one monumental upset, here's where things stand.
was interesting. Week 2 of the 2024 college football season didn't give us many earth-shattering results beyond Notre Dame's upset loss to Northern Illinois, but it felt like about half the teams in the top 25 flirted with disaster. Few teams have looked genuinely awesome twice, and we head into Week 3 not knowing what to think about countless teams. Honestly, that's a pretty fun place to be.
SP+ is in the same boat. It trusts about five teams right now, and the distance between No. 1 Georgia and No. 10 Miami is about the same as the distance between Miami and No. 41 West Virginia. There's a huge batch of teams it's still trying to figure out.it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency
. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall.
SP+ rewarded all of these resounding wins with solid bumps. Appalachian State Kentucky Central Michigan NC State A lot of this list corresponds with the Moving Up list above, but SP+ lost quite a bit of faith in what were supposed to be two top-15 teams, Oklahoma and Notre Dame.
The Sun Belt crept back ahead of the AAC in the race for Best Group of Five Conference, and we've got quite a race for eighth as well. The top four, however, are pretty well-established, though I guess the ACC could still catch the Big 12 if things break right in the future.Here's what the new 12-team CFP might look like based on updated SP+ projections and what the results would be if the favorite, per SP+, won each round.11 Kansas State at 6 Penn State Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: 4 Utah vs.
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