College football best bets: The over is the play in Alabama-LSU

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College football best bets: The over is the play in Alabama-LSU
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Alabama-LSU could decide the SEC West winner, and the teams could light up the scoreboard.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels should be able to move the ball against Alabama’s defense. The Crimson Tide also can do the same when it has the ball. produced another .500 Saturday. North Texas covered as an underdog in a wild finish and UCLA-Colorado ended well under the total, but Florida and Washington were simply bad picks. I’m 18-14 on the season.This column will give out four picks per week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which can be anything .

Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels paces an offense that leads the nation in expected points added per play and is second in success rate. Daniels has 25 touchdown passes, tied with USC’s Caleb Williams for tops in the nation; averages a national-best 11.5 yards per attempt; and hasin the country behind Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. The Crimson Tide’s passing defense has allowed at least 9.7 yards per attempt in each of its past five games and now faces the best quarterback it’ll see all season.

New Mexico State’s schedule has been forgiving, to say the least, particularly when it comes to its opponents’ rushing defenses: Of the Aggies’ nine opponents this season, only one ranks better than 100th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game . The Aggies have taken full advantage of this, and they’re averaging 6.06 yards per carry for the season,.

In a 35-32 loss at Memphis on Sept. 30, the Broncos outgained the Tigers in terms of yards per play but had a third-quarter field goal attempt blocked and returned for a touchdown, which gave Memphis the lead for good. Coach Andy Avalos also made the baffling decision to punt from the Memphis 38-yard line while trailing by only four points early in the fourth quarter. Memphis padded its lead with a touchdown on its next possession, and the Broncos couldn’t come back from there.

Two weeks later at Colorado State, Boise State took a 30-10 lead with 6:12 remaining but allowed the Rams to score 21 points over the final 4:01, including the game-winning touchdown with one second remaining. The Broncos again outgained their opponent in terms of yards per play but surrendered that big lead thanks in part to a successful onside kick and a pass-interference call on a fourth-down Colorado State incompletion. The Broncos’ postgame win expectancy in that one was 72.6 percent.

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