CNH: China authorities loosening their grip, but devaluation unlikely

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CNH: China authorities loosening their grip, but devaluation unlikely
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Chinese yuan has depreciated to its lowest levels since November.

Key points Chinese authorities have allowed the yuan to weaken by fixing the midpoint for onshore yuan weaker. Reports of bond buying by the Chinese central bank have also underpinned, as these could signal the start of quantitative easing. Broader easing measures are still likely to be delayed until the Fed easing begins. Chinese authorities are unlikely to let yuan weaken steeply with trade tensions rising.

The offshore yuan also closely follows the onshore yuan, although it has traded above the band for much of this year. Today’s onshore spot midpoint fixing was the weakest since November, with the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1192. This might indicate that the People's Bank of China is willing to let the yuan weaken further to manage depreciation pressure. This has pushed onshore and offshore yuan to their weakest levels since November.

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