It’s important to see whether individual data points cohere into a larger pattern, or if they’re just “janky,” as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic put it.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribefor September, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4% according to the Labor Department. Both figures are 0.1 percentage point higher than the Dow Jones consensus. Still, the year-over-year rate is at its lowest since February 2021.
But Bostic acknowledged it's important to see whether individual data points cohere into a larger pattern, or if they're just "janky," as Bostic put it. They now think there's an 87.1% probability the Fed will make a quarter-point cut at its November meeting, up from 80.3%. The increase in bets is small. But its implication is big: Even after the CPI report, the market, it seems, is still more concerned about a slowing economy than inflation remaining sticky.
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