As Alaska Native residents prepare to return to villages devastated by ex-Typhoon Halong, climate experts warn they’re heading back to communities destined to face the same destructive cycle of flooding, erosion, and storms that will only intensify in the coming decades.
ANCHORAGE, Alaska — As Alaska Native residents prepare to return to villages devastated by ex-Typhoon Halong , climate experts warn they’re heading back to communities destined to face the same destructive cycle of flooding, erosion, and storms that will only intensify in the coming decades.
As the state’s Nov. 10 goal date approaches for residents who wish to return, communities are grappling with a historic decision: abandon ancestral lands for higher ground, or face a future of repeated climate disasters. After returning to her home in Toksook Bay, Alaska State Rep. Nellie Jimmie has witnessed much of the storm’s impact firsthand. While the immediate devastation is immense, Jimmie said she worries most about the long-term impacts on cultural practices that have spanned generations.“It’s a lot of heartache, people losing their fish camp where their great-great-grandparents have been or family members were born, and it’s gone.” Jimmie said she’s heard from numerous people who want to see their villages relocated. Communities like Kwigillingok, which put the relocation question to a vote, decided to make it their long-term priority. “I am not here to tell anybody what to do, but to be supportive of my district in what they want to do to have self-determination,” Jimmie said. “But yes, there are people who, just from their horrifying experience, they’re too traumatized to go back.”Kwigillingok Tribal Administrator Daryl John said while maintaining infrastructure like communication, transportation and the airport runway remain immediate priorities, after October’s vote, he has continued to ask state leaders for a realistic timeline on when moving the village roughly 27 miles north would be feasible. “All of the community efforts right now — what we’re doing — are for short-term purposes only,” John said. “The long-term plan is to relocate to higher ground.” When asked about how soon a relocation effort could be possible, longtime Bethel Sen. Lyman Hoffman said it’s more a question of infrastructure, pointing to the $40-$80 million estimated just for rebuilding the village’s school. “Then you have the runway costs, you have clinics, you have post offices,” Hoffman said. “So, I would say that if the will was there, it would take at least 10 years.”Dr. Nora Nieminski, a coastal hazards program manager for the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, oversees a program dedicated to collecting data on coastal and riverine environments, understanding coastal processes, and analyzing responses to extreme and long-term changes. Her program produces crucial erosion risk and flood impact assessments, providing communities and decision-makers with vital information. For Western Alaska villages such as Kipnuk and Kwigillingok, Nieminski said long-term data does not indicate an increased frequency or magnitude of flooding. However, since 2000, residents can “reliably expect a severe storm to occur every year during that fall season.” “It’s important to remember, though, that not every storm is likely to lead to flooding,” Nieminski said. “A big factor in that is how the storm and timing of the storm aligns with high tides for these communities, both coastal and riverine, and even, in some cases, far up rivers. If a storm aligns with a high tide, that dramatically increases that storm’s impact.” Nieminski said nuisance flooding from high tides alone has become more common, and baseline water levels are steadily rising, partly due to permafrost degradation.— meaning a property is fit and safe to live in — nearly impossible due to the unpredictability of extreme events like ex-Typhoon Halong. While data does not indicate an increase in long-term flooding, Nieminski said erosion poses a greater concern, with communities like those in Jimmie’s district and others within the region along the Kuskokwim River experiencing alarming rates.Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at University of Alaska Fairbanks’ International Arctic Research Center, has spent years studying the evolving climate in the Kuskokwim Delta region. Based on data collected by his office, there are several critical environmental trends impacting the Kuskokwim Delta, including rising air and ocean temperatures across northern and western Alaska. The duration of sea ice in Kuskokwim Bay is diminishing, reducing protection against erosion. The situation is particularly concerning because the Kuskokwim Delta is exceptionally flat, with most land within 10 feet of sea level, making it highly susceptible to these environmental changes. “Between permafrost thawing due to the warmer air temperatures, oceans warming, which — warming oceans by themselves, of course, cause the level of the sea to come up,” Thoman said. “Less sea ice means there’s more time of the year when we don’t have the ice offering protection from erosion. For an area that is so close to sea level ... we’re getting hammered here from all sides.” Thoman said that while the frequency of storms might not be increasing, warmer ocean temperatures mean storms have the potential to be stronger and carry more moisture, resulting in increased precipitation and higher winds.Looking ahead, Thoman said the region’s future habitability depends on human actions. While infrastructure hardening can mitigate moderate flood events, there are limits to its effectiveness against severe flooding.as an example of the potential fate facing villages like Kwigillingok. Severe river erosion driven by thawing permafrost, rising temperatures, and increased storm surges have led to ongoing efforts to relocate Newtok to a Thoman expects significant flooding events will become more common in the Kuskokwim Delta over time, with saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources emerging as a major issue. He emphasized while major storms like Halong are episodic, they will — in his view — become more frequent over the next 20 to 40 years as oceans continue to warm. Though he is not able to advise communities on what to do, Thoman encourages village leaders to proceed with caution when considering staying on traditional lands. “I would say that it’s really important at this stage that folks and communities and tribes that want to stay on their traditional lands, or make modifications so that they can do that, to go in with eyes wide open,” Thoman said. “What are all the factors that need to be considered?” For John and others living in communities across the region, Thoman said those factors include the likelihood they’ll face evacuation again. As residents prepare to return home this week, the question isn’t whether another Halong-level storm will hit these communities. Climate experts say it’s when.Daylight Saving Time: Possibly the last one for Alaska?‘Everyone thought that we weren’t gonna make it’: How a school in Fairbanks became state champions in inaugural seasonDepartment of Homeland Security approves $1 million in expedited Halong recovery effort funding
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