Absurdly predictable. Absurdly well predicted. Absurdly impactful. Ignored by everyone. Gray rhino. But climate change isn't a gray rhino risk anymore.
. Now COVID-19. There is nothing unlikely about emergent contagious diseases and outbreaks. They happen all the time with varying degrees of severity.
A communicable disease like COVID-19 was inevitable, not unlikely. Yet, especially in the west, black swan has become such an overused metaphor that a large number of people claimed the disease was one. Meanwhile, China’s national government, which deeply understands and lives by gray rhino risk strategies, told the world exactly what was going on as soon as they understand the magnitude of COVID-19 and swung into pre-planned response actions rapidly, including going into lockdown, building massive hospitals in seven days, sequencing the genome of the virus, releasing that information, and the like.
And so to climate change. I consider it to be the ultimate gray rhino. It’s huge. It’s slow-moving. We’ve been mostly ignoring the risk and implications for decades. Certainly we have been grossly under resourcing work to address it. We’ve been increasing infrastructure and population densities in areas that will clearly be at much greater risk of climate action instead of applying the basics of the PARA framework I helped document in aThe big one in the framework is ‘avoid’.
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