A study shows climate change made India and Pakistan’s record heat in March and April at least 30 times more likely to occur and about 1.8 degrees hotter.
Otto said that the study’s estimate of climate change’s effect is conservative because of data constraints and that rising temperatures probably increased the likelihood of the event “higher than 30 times.”that the likelihood of a record-warm April and May in northwestern India and Pakistan has become about 100 times as likely because of climate change. Otto said the U.K. Met Office’s estimation, which was based off one model, is well within the uncertainty of the latest study.
“Both show that climate change is a real game changer when it comes to these kind of heat waves,” Otto said. “The main message to take away here [is] that adaptation to heat has been the absolute essential thing to do in life in every part of the world, really, but especially also in this part of the world.”
The World Weather Attribution study also examined how likely a heat wave similar to this year’s would occur in an even warmer world. The team found that such a heat wave would become two to 20 times as likely if the planet reaches 3.6 degrees above preindustrial levels.India has warmed around 1.8 degrees since the preindustrial era. Pakistan has warmed 2.2 degrees .
The study adds to growing research that underlines how climate change is increasing extreme weather events across the world. According to the climate report released by the United Nations last year, evidence shows that heat waves have increased across almost all land areas because of climate change.
Northern India and Pakistan face another round of heat later this week. After some relatively cool weather the next several days, temperatures are forecast to rise several degrees above average Friday into the weekend.
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