A study has found that climate change played a role in the “UCT fire” of 2021 and has significantly increased the chances of such devastating fires occurring in Cape Town:
Cape Town house fire claims the lives of a woman and girl
The data also showed that the Fire Weather Index, which combines temperature, wind speed, humidity, and precipitation to obtain a value, was 67.77 on 18 April 2021, the highest recorded during autumn in Cape Town. The authors state the results complement other efforts to determine the link between climate change and extreme climatic events such as droughts, floods, and fires around Cape Town, such as aof the 2015–17 drought that found climate change had “more than doubled the likelihood of a prolonged drought to occur”.
He said there was a 30/30/30 rule, which related to temperatures of 30ºC or higher, humidity of 30% or lower, and wind speeds of 30km per hour or higher. These factors, particularly in combination, led to runaway wildfires which were very difficult, if not impossible, to bring under control.As the study noted, all these factors were in play on 18 April, and Midgley said the study showed that climate change had almost doubled the chances of such uncontrollable fires occurring.
He said the “most consistently predicted outcome” of a global increase in temperature was that the frontal systems that bring the winter rains that define the Cape’s Mediterranean climate, would shift southwards, leading to significantly lower rainfall over the Western Cape. City Fire and Rescue Service spokesperson Jermaine Carelse said ten years ago, in 2013, 7,784 bush, grass, and rubbish fires had been recorded. The figure for 2022 was 9,879, a 27% increase.
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