China's carbon emissions may have peaked in 2023, as figures suggest its output has plateaued so far in 2024
A massive rollout of wind and solar power across China may mean the country’s emissions peaked in 2023, in what would be a historic turning point in the fight againstpandemic. But since then, huge amounts of wind and solar power have been added to the nation’s electricity grid, while emissions from the construction industry have fallen.A new analysis indicates that China’s carbon emissions remained flat from July to September 2024 after falling 1 per cent in the second quarter of the year.
In its climate change plan submitted to the United Nations, China promised to peak its greenhouse gas emissions before 2030, and to reach net-zero emissions by 2060. But experts warnis crucial, says Myllyvirta. “That would open up the door to the country beginning to reduce emissions much faster than its current commitments require,” he says. “This would have enormous significance for the global effort to avoid catastrophic climate change.
But coal-fired power use still rose by 2 per cent, and gas generation by 13 per cent, during July to September in response to rising demand. This led to an overall rise in CO2 emissions from the Chinese power sector of 3 per cent during this period. But these were offset by a slowdown in construction across China, as investment in real estate contracted.
Demand for oil also fell by 2 per cent in the third quarter of the year, as electric vehicles make up an ever-increasing share of China’s vehicle fleet. By 2030, almost 1 in 3 cars on the road in ChinaUnexpectedly, the eastern Pacific Ocean is cooling. If this “cold tongue” continues, it could reduce greenhouse gas warming by 30 per cent – but also bring megadrought to the USusing official figures and commercial data.
However, he warns that a plateau or drop in emissions in 2024 is not guaranteed, as government stimulus measures to revive the economy could push up emissions in the final three months of 2024. Carbon emissions must fall by at least 2 per cent in the last three months of the year to dip below 2023 levels, he said.suggests it expects emissions to keep rising in the country to the end of the decade, an approach that would blow through the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5°C.
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