Running backs we think will fail to meet expectations or are coming off a huge statistical season and won’t be able to duplicate it.
San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey will be a major risk-reward pick in 2026 fantasy football drafts. | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images Running back busts can be detrimental to your chances of taking home a fantasy football title, or at the least your chances of fielding a competitive roster.
Just ask any manager who drafted Saquon Barkley or Breece Hall last season. Given their lack of statistical success, it was very difficult, in most cases, to make up for their regression and weekly inconsistencies. Looking ahead to 2026, I’ve projected 10 different runners, each with a level of risk. Either I’m projecting the player to fail to meet expectations based on his ADP, or he's coming off a huge statistical season that he won’t duplicate.
So let’s call these backs you should beware of in drafts, or who could fail to meet expectations based on a previous high level of fantasy success. Admittedly, I was dead wrong about McCaffrey last season. His proneness to injuries scared me from drafting him in the first round and he went on to score a league-high 416.6 fantasy points. So why do I have him listed as a potential bust?
Well, he’s entering his age-30 season after a year with 450 touches between the regular season and postseason. CMC also has played back-to-back full seasons just once since 2020, and just two of the past 13 backs who led the league in touches went on to finish in the top 12 the following year. Beware McCaffrey. I don’t necessarily think Achane is going to fall off a statistical cliff this season.
In fact, he’s still projected to be a first-round pick based on early ADP data. It’s still notable, however, that the Dolphins are going to be an awful team in 2026. Their current win projection is among the lowest in the league, and their offense figures to be pretty dreadful. That could limit what Achane does in the stat sheets, particularly in the end zone, so there is a level of concern.
Barkley was one of my biggest bust candidates a season ago and he went on to see significant drops across the board. In fact, he scored 123 fewer fantasy points than he did in 2024. Still, he’s being drafted among the top eight running backs , ahead of guys like Chase Brown and Jeremiyah Love. Keep in mind that Barkley is entering his age-29 campaign, and only Derrick Henry has compiled more touches since 2018.
I’d feel much more comfortable with Barkley as a No. 2 fantasy back, and I certainly won’t draft him in the first round. , eventually turning himself in to authorities. He was ultimately released, and that whole situation might turn out to be nothing, but it was a quick scare in fantasy football. It also coincided with the fact that, on the field, Jacobs wasn’t the same player last year.
He averaged 3.97 yards per carry , and his point-per-game average dropped 1.4 PPG from the previous season. What’s more, Jacobs’ Rushing Yards Over Expected was -7 , down from +217 in 2024 . At 28, he’s now a declining fantasy option. Hall has seen his fantasy-points-per-game average decline in each of the past three years, and his 13-point-per-game clip a season ago was a career worst.
While the Jets did sign him to a lucrative extension, that doesn’t change the fact that Hall’s stats are going in the wrong direction. The Jets also still have Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis in the backfield, and the team added two big offensive options in Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. Hall should still be a viable No. 2 fantasy runner, but don’t expect him to ever get back to his elite 2023 totals.
Etienne is coming off a strong season, finishing 10th in fantasy points among runners while averaging nearly 15 points per game with the Jaguars. Moving to New Orleans and head coach Kellen Moore's offense is a positive, too … that is, unless the Saints decide to keep Alvin Kamara. The veteran is still on the roster and even showed up to OTAs, so there’s at least a chance he remains a part of the backfield this season.
If that happens, Etienne’s ceiling will take an obvious hit. Harvey showed flashes of fantasy potential in his rookie season, scoring 16-plus fantasy points in six of his final 10 games.
However, most of his success came without J.K. Dobbins, who was injured and missed the final seven games. The Broncos still decided to retain Dobbins, and they also drafted Jonah Coleman in the fourth round for added depth. With Dobbins likely to be the Week 1 starter, Harvey figures to be no more than a committee runner with a questionable ceiling in 2026.
Swift was quietly a serviceable No. 2 fantasy running back last season, finishing 15th in points and averaging nearly five yards per rush. However, the Bears also have second-year back Kyle Monangai in the mix. He averaged a solid 4.6 yards per rush in 2025, and there’s a chance he could shrink the touch share gap with Swift moving forward. In fact, a scenario in which we see a 50-50 split or a hot-hand mindset is certainly possible.
That could limit Swift in the stat sheets. D'Andre Swift racked up 1,386 all-purpose yards and 10 TDs last season, but could have more company in the Bears' backfield. | Kyle Terada-Imagn ImagesPollard has rushed for 1,000-plus yards in each of his last four seasons, but it hasn’t turned him into a more valuable fantasy asset.
In fact, his points-per-game average has declined in each of the last four years, and his 10.9 points-per-game clip a year ago was just 30th among running backs who played at least eight games. The Titans also have incumbent Tyjae Spears as well as rookie Nicholas Singleton in the backfield mix, so Pollard’s role could diminish. Under the category of things no one saw coming last season, I present to you Gainwell.
He went from being undrafted in fantasy to finishing 16th in points among running backs. In fact, he scored more points than Hall, Harvey, Kenneth Walker III, Bucky Irving and Omarion Hampton . Most of his success came as a receiver, as Gainwell caught 73 passes out of the backfield. That total is destined to decrease in Tampa Bay, as their offense has far more competing pass-catchers than Pittsbugh did a year ago.
So if you’re thinking about Gainwell playing a prominent role in your PPR league, I’d think again. Michael Fabiano is a fantasy football analyst for Sports Illustrated. His weekly rankings and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em articles are must-reads for fantasy players. He is also the co-host of the Fantasy Dirt Podcast on SI.
Before joining SI in August 2020, he worked for CBS Sports, NFL Network and SiriusXM. He also contributes to Westwood One Radio. Fabiano was the first fantasy analyst to appear on one of the four major TV networks and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame.
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