China to see slow growth in H1 2023, a more pronounced rebound in H2 – Goldman Sachs China GDP Banks Growth Coronavirus
on the Chinese economy, expecting weak growth in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 as the Zero Covid Policy likely stays in place during the winter.“Although the leadership has clearly signaled that it aims to exit ZCP, we do not expect actual reopening to start until April. The basic reason for this is that medical and communication preparations will take time.”
“We expect a continued drag from Covid caution as well as other headwinds, some cyclical and some more structural.” “On the structural side, we see the contraction of the property sector and US chip export restrictions as multi-year drags. We estimate that the ongoing slide of the property sector will subtract around -1½pp from growth next year as it continues to delever and face demographic headwinds.”
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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