China set for unprecedented contraction in early-year data

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China set for unprecedented contraction in early-year data
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Virus outbreak has crippled car and home sales, interrupted trade and travel. FMTNews China Virus Outbreak

A worker sits at a production line at a microelectronics factory in Nantong, China.

The epidemic and attempts to slow its spread suddenly paralysed China’s economy during that break, forcing consumers to cut spending and stay home, factories to extend their production halt, and trapping millions of people far from where they work. “The bad news is the recovery has been slower than expected, while the good news is that it’s still recovering.”

That’s down from a 5.7% expansion in 2019 and would be the first time it’s contracted in data back to 1998.But even in January, the sector wasn’t looking especially healthy, with the official gauge that tracks sentiment among purchasing managers at industrial firms at 50 for the month, right on the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

Other alternative data, including coal consumption, shipping, electricity usage and migrant worker return rate, all suggest activity remains far below normal for this time of year.Fixed-asset investment outside rural households, a closely watched indicator of construction activity, likely dropped by 2% in the January-February period, the survey showed, in sharp contrast to the 5.4% rise in 2019.

“The contraction in FAI investment may be deeper than that in industrial production, as many firms may need to cut their capex to survive the epidemic,” Nomura Holdings Inc economists wrote in a note in late February.Retail sales growth was already weak, with the 8% expansion in 2019 the slowest pace since 1999.

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