Xi Jinping has announced that China will strive for “carbon neutrality” by 2060. But are the targets realistic?
IN A RECORDED video message to the UN General Assembly on September 22nd, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, made a surprise announcement. He said that as well as aiming to halt the rise of its carbon emissions by 2030—a goal set five years ago—China would strive for “carbon neutrality” by 2060. In climate-change jargon, this means achieving a balance between carbon emissions and carbon-reduction both technological and natural, such as planting trees.
Aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060 is another matter. Mr Xi had already floated the idea that China might strive for such a goal on September 14th at a video summit with European Union leaders. Though during the call he did not commit to a deadline, his naming of carbon neutrality as an ambition was “a political breakthrough”, says a European diplomat. Last year European leaders set a target for “climate neutrality” by 2050. America has kept silent on the topic.
Mr Xi did not say how China would meet its 2060 goal. American CO2 emissions peaked sometime between 2005 and 2007, then dropped by about 14% in the subsequent decade. EU total emissions peaked in 1990 and have since fallen by about 21%. The aim is to reduce them by 45% by 2030. That would amount to a near-halving of emissions in four decades. China, by contrast, is implying that it will plunge from peak to near-nothing in just 30 years.
Achieving the 2060 target will require a complete decarbonisation of China’s electricity supply, more than 60% of which still comes from burning coal. Yet China is still building coal-fired power plants faster than any country. In the first six months of 2020 it built more than 60% of the world’s new installations of them. Carbon-heavy infrastructure being planned and built today could remain usable for decades.
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