China posted 6.6% growth in 2018. It's probably much lower.
, typically based on a variety of Chinese proxy data but, in the end, not that different from the official numbers. In this article I argue that, based on the performance of countries comparable to China, the latter's GDP growth could be as low as half the official number and that markets are likely overestimating China's importance for the global economy.
China stands out as having as having a growth rate much above that of comparable middle-income countries. Yet China's demographic growth is low, at about 0.5% a year, against 1% in countries in the same income range . Most of China's growth advantage therefore comes from productivity growth, which is three times as fast as its peers.
, making its official productivity growth truly extraordinary and somewhat difficult to take at face value.I base my skepticism over Chinese growth on three things primarily. First, China's government driven development model works well in the early stages of development but much less well when economies become more complex and growth becomes dependent on private sector innovations – the stage China is currently at.
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