Commodities in 2023 look to perform much like they did this year, with tight supplies boosting energy. Metals may get a lift from a recovery in China
Commodities in 2023 look to perform much like they did this year, with tight supplies contributing to further gains in energy prices and agricultural markets driven by changes in growing conditions. Metals, however, may get a boost from improvements in China’s economy.
As of Dec. 12, the S&P GSCI SPGSCI , a benchmark for investments in the commodity markets, traded a modest 2% higher year to date on the back of a rally for natural gas, even as cotton and coffee prices declined. Coal appeared to benefit the most from Europe’s energy crisis. Futures prices for Newcastle coal traded on ICE NCFF23 were up 136% this year, as of Dec. 12, as the market looked for alternative energy sources following the loss of most Russian natural gas.
Oil prices, meanwhile, saw volatile trading in 2022. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude CL.1 CLF23 CL00 trades down 2.7% this year as of Dec. 12, while global benchmark Brent crude BRN00 BRNG23 trades a modest 0.3% higher this year, after both touched their highest levels since July 2008 in March.
Steel, as well as industrial metals such as aluminum and copper, have lagged following the “huge demand and price run-up in 2021,” as post-COVID reopenings dissipated and supply lines caught up, said Advisors Asset’s Colyer.Chu expects a “strong year” for base metals, as supply continues to disappoint and demand should recover as China reenters the market. The longer-term theme of decarbonization and energy transition will also “really start to impact demand positively.
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