.ianbremmer: China's quest to be a global problem-solver reveals a dangerous game
pledged to consider the plan, it has no chance of moving forward, because it does not require Russia’s invading army to leave Ukraine, does not promise a return of Ukrainian land now illegally occupied by Russian forces, and provides nothing tangible for reconstruction of the country. An immediate ceasefire would freeze Russian gains in place, forcing Ukraine to try to persuade Vladimir Putin to voluntarily give back land.
In addition, though Beijing has rejected the charge, Western governments continue to warn that China may still be thinking of providing weapons for Russia. Direct accusations from senior U.S. officials that China is considering the idea make clear that Washington is watching closely and that serious consequences will come if China presses ahead.
China’s peace plan implicitly presents the U.S. as a warmonger and NATO as the tool it uses to make an awful war last longer and cost more. It also allows Xi to interact with Putin—and even to visit Moscow in coming months—as a mediator rather than as an ally of the man who ordered the invasion. China may also be hoping to drive political wedges within America and Europe by creating an “off-ramp” for those on both sides of the Atlantic who question the wisdom of open-ended support for Ukraine.
Make no mistake; China is playing a dangerous game. Any provision of weapons to Russia would instantly make an already fractious U.S.-China relationship much worse. The aftershocks from that quake would be felt around the world. But even if China continues to limit its involvement to the role of Kremlin apologist and gadfly would-be peacemaker, the impact on tensions between America and China may help ensure the war in Ukraine continues to expand in ways no one can control.
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