TD Securities analysts predict that China's industrial production and retail sales will fall short of expectations in March, despite positive PMI data. They forecast a 5.1% year-on-year growth in industrial production, below the consensus of 6%, due to a decline in exports. Retail sales are also expected to print at 4% year-on-year, reflecting weak spending over the month.
TD Securities analysts preview the upcoming data releases from China . Authorities may step up more fiscal action soon We expect China industrial production and retail sales to miss to the downside in March despite the seemingly upbeat March PMI s. We pencil in a 5.1% y/y growth in industrial production, below consensus at 6% and tracking the big downside surprise in March exports.
The exports outturn suggest that production may retreat as the Lunar New Year distortion fades and underlying production momentum may not be as strong as initially predicted. While March manufacturing PMI jumped back to expansion, it could take some time for manufacturers to translate that optimism into action. We also anticipate retail sales to print at 4% y/y as the contraction in imports and weak core inflation in March suggest downbeat spending over the month.
China Industrial Production Retail Sales March PMI Exports GDP
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