China's exports and imports defied expectations in December, surging by 10.7% and 1.0% respectively year-on-year. This strong performance is attributed to exporters rushing shipments ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. However, the long-term impact of these tariffs on China's export-driven economy remains uncertain.
China's exports and imports in December both exceeded expectations by a large margin, according to data released by the country's customs authority on Monday. Exports surged by 10.7% year-on-year, surpassing the Reuters poll forecast of a 7.3% increase. Chinese imports experienced a 1.0% rise last month compared to the previous year, reversing the declines observed in the preceding two months. This surge in exports is attributed to exporters anticipating U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump's impending tariffs. China's exports saw a 10.7% jump from the year before, outperforming the Reuters poll prediction of a 7.3% growth. This growth followed a 6.7% increase in November and a sharp rise of 12.7% in October.Customs data revealed that imports increased by 1.0% last month compared to the previous year, reversing the contraction witnessed in the two preceding months. A prolonged real estate crisis has impacted domestic demand, making China more reliant on exports to fuel its economic growth. Exports have been a rare positive indicator in China's struggling economy amidst heightened trade tensions with key trading partners like the United States and the European Union. However, this growth could be jeopardized following President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House. Trump, who will be inaugurated on January 20, has fueled concerns about increased tariffs on Chinese exports. Chinese authorities have implemented policy support measures since late September to bolster the country's economy as growth falters and social tensions escalate. However, 'a residue of caution and restraint remains,' Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, stated in a note last Friday. 'Though top leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi still appears reluctant to embrace the additional degree of stimulus required to combat deflation,' Wildau added. 'Policymakers need to keep some stimulus powder dry to enable an ample response if the tariff impact is severe,' he said, suggesting that the uncertainty surrounding export growth provides an additional reason for Beijing to avoid a 'big bang approach.' Among several crucial economic data releases scheduled for this week, China is expected to publish its full-year and fourth-quarter GDP figures on Friday. Growth is projected at 5.1% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2024, according to a Reuters poll
CHINA EXPORTS IMPORTS TARIFFS ECONOMY
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