Economists estimate China's yearly GDP growth could be north of 2.5% this year — even as the rest of the world economy is expected to shrink by at least 4%.
"The fact that China is back up and running smoothly, and in fact some evidence suggests that China is actually grabbing market share in export industries, will be a cause of concern for U.S. policymakers in particular," says Hirson.
That has outpaced consumption, meaning China is still making more stuff than people want or are able to buy. Retail sales have lagged behind last year, but picked up for the first time in August. Exports of home goods and electronics have climbed, driven by a captive market of consumers abroad eager to undertake home improvement projects while in lockdown or willing to splurge on work-from-home items such as computers or massage chairs."We should be worried about the Chinese export growth because for most of the households in Europe or the U.S., once you have got one laptop, you are not going to buy the additional one in the coming months," Bo says.
A Peking University study from July estimated 9% of the adult work force in China remains unemployed after being laid off during the height of the pandemic. Many of the newly unemployed are itinerant migrant workers who haveto find new, temporary work assignments and don't qualify for China's thinly synchresourced unemployment insurance programs.
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