Unusual spikes in new cases, and the curious way their timing matches political developments in China, raise questions about their accuracy
EVER SINCE the new coronavirus started to spread beyond China’s borders, the country’s official tally of infections has served as a grim benchmark for the outbreaks that followed. On March 26th the count in China was surpassed by that in America, now the centre of the pandemic. Since then China’s total, now close to 83,000, has also been overtaken by those of Italy, Spain, Germany and France.
Take Hubei, the province hit hardest by covid-19. On February 9th the region reported a 27% increase in new infections. On the next two days, new cases declined by 20% and 22%, respectively. Then on February 12th they surged by a whopping 742% to almost 14,000, before immediately falling back sharply. Chinese authorities say the spike was caused by revisions to the government’s methodology for counting cases.
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