Efforts by China to control air pollution by reining in industrial output could help ease an energy crunch and tame a bull run in thermal coal, according to the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association.
Thermal coal has rallied as Covid-19 lockdowns have disrupted the transportation of supplies. But the runup may lose steam as more industries start rationing output next month under Beijing’s “blue sky” campaigns, said Han Lei, a CCTD coal analyst on a Wednesday webcast.“We may see thermal prices reach a turning point in December,” said Han, as curtailed industrial output lowers demand for the fuel.
Cement factories in the northern industrial hub Hebei are scheduled for a five-month rationing of output, according to state-own Securities Times. Spot prices for coal in Qinhuangdao have breached government-mandated price caps, rising to 1,558 yuan per ton on Oct. 17, Morgan Stanley analysts including Sara Chan wrote in a note Tuesday. Local officials in key mining hubs have sent warnings to crack down on price spikes.
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