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China’s highest profile political event of the year provided little cheer for commodities bulls hoping for a jolt to demand in the world’s biggest market for raw materials.
“The ultimate question will be the willingness of policymakers to defend China’s economic growth target of ‘around 5%’ this year,” Vivek Dhar, analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note. “We think the goal will be challenging, but if growth undershoots even downside expectations of policymakers, it will likely open the door to more infrastructure-related stimulus.”
Beijing’s longer-term bet is that real estate can be replaced by new drivers of demand: EVs, clean energy and high-tech manufacturing — a change that over time is likely to radically alter its approach to raw materials markets and focus policymaking more squarely on greener ingredients.
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