China quietly plans a pivot from ‘zero COVID’

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China quietly plans a pivot from ‘zero COVID’
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As the highly transmissible OmicronVariant seeps into China and the social and economic costs of their “zero COVID” policy mount, Chinese researchers are examining options for coexisting with the virus.

China’s aggressive “zero COVID” strategy has served it remarkably well. The country has reported fewer than 154,000 cases and 5200 deaths from COVID-19 so far, a tiny fraction of the figures in the United States. But as the highly transmissible Omicron variant seeps into the country and the social and economic costs of the zero COVID policy mount, Chinese researchers are examining options for coexisting with the virus, as the rest of the world is doing. Some think that shift may soon begin.

China’s zero COVID policy has relied on mass testing, contact tracing, isolating the infected, restrictions on international and domestic travel, and lockdowns of entire cities. The system has helped China stamp out every outbreak so far, including several of the Omicron variant since mid-January. But outbreaks are becoming more frequent and widespread.

Under what’s now called “dynamic zero COVID,” localities have leeway to “tailor the measures to local conditions,” says HKU virologist Huachen Zhu. But the national government is pushing back at what it considers unnecessary local restrictions. On 18 February, the National Development and Reform Commission, which manages economic affairs, told local governments to avoid arbitrary lockdowns and barred unauthorized closures of restaurants, supermarkets, tourist sites, and cinemas.

The city now plans to test every resident three times in March to identify cases and may resort to limited or even citywide lockdowns. But HKU modeling suggests things will get worse before they get better. If social distancing measures stay the same—meaning restaurants stop serving after 6 p.m. and gyms, bars, and hair salons are closed—4.6 million Hong Kong residents will have been infected by mid-May, the models suggest. More than 3200 will have died.

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